As Mecca and Medina are the pivots of Islam, Damascus was the pivot of Sunni Islam under the Umayyad Dynasty. Whomever holds its reigns holds the key to a launch pad with immense powers that neither Saudi Arabia, nor Iran, or Israel want it to fall in the wrong hands. All three countries, for their own reasons, are either fighting openly to curb this threat or working behind the scene to insure Damascus does not turn into Jerusalem on steroids. Damascus in the wrong hands is problematic to the region and the world.
Here is how Encyclopedia Britannica defines the Umayyad Dynasty whose capital was Damascus:
Umayyad dynasty, also spelled Omayyad, the first great Muslim dynasty to rule the empire of the Caliphate (661-750 ce), sometimes referred to as the Arab kingdom (reflecting traditional Muslim disapproval of the secular nature of the Umayyad state). The Umayyads, headed by Abu Sufyan, were a largely merchant family of the Quraysh tribe centered at Mecca. They had initially resisted Islam, not converting until 627, but subsequently became prominent administrators under Muhammad and his immediate successors. In the first Muslim civil war (fitnah; 656-661) – the struggle for the caliphate following the murder of Othman ibn Affan, the third caliph (reigned 644-656) – Abu Sufyan’s son Muawiyah, then governor of Syria, emerged victorious over Ali, Muhammad’s son-in-law and fourth caliph. Muawiyah then established himself as the first Umayyad caliph.
Not only is Damascus one of the symbols central to the split in Islam into Sunnis and Shias, but it was also the launch pad the Umayyad Dynasty managed to conquer 5.79 million square miles of territories, which, at the time, was the largest empire the world has ever witnessed and the fifth largest empire in today’s recorded history.
Damascus in the wrong hands is like a nuke in the hands of al-Qaeda.
Saudi Arabia fears that if Damascus falls to the Muslim Brotherhood, it could trump the power base in Mecca and Medina.
Iran fears that if Damascus falls in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood, it could limit its ability to expand and may eventually become an existential threat to all the Shias in the region.
Israel fears it for any number of reasons whether both ancient and modern histories are considered; and even though Israel is able to defend herself militarily, its resources and people cannot outlast a long term war of attrition on all of its three fronts should the Muslim Brotherhood decide Israel is priority number one. Not with Obama in power at least.
The Assad family’s repressive and secular nature comforted many, including the Saudis and the Iranians who felt the neutralization of Damascus is an essential component in maintaining stability in the region. Al-Sauds are building their own Wahabi Dynasty and the Iranians are expanding theirs based on the return of the Mahdi. Damascus in the hands of the MB spoils their march towards their own history.
Obama does not trust the Israelis; therefore, he is unwilling to listen to their advice. He has been brought up to always rally for the underdog, which secured important positions to many Islamists advisers in his administration. They rallied even more support for the Muslim Brotherhood than in any previous administration. Backed by the prime minister of a major NATO ally as well as Qatar, Obama is delivering the Middle East to the Muslim Brotherhood on a silver plate.
In fact, the Obama Administration is showing the extent of its naivete by allowing a new cadre of highly intelligent 30-something running in its halls of power while deciding, based on local polls, how to manage the world.
Very few seem to grasp that if Damascus falls in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood, it is the beginning of a 300-year old war, not 30. The same way no one paid attention to the results of a durable and highly oppressive regime under the Assad family.
What is the solution you ask? If we want to avoid the falling of Damascus in the wrong hands.
Maybe the answer lies in an honest Sunni moderate leader leading us away from ancient history and into modernity. One who is incorruptible and able to open vast economic opportunities to all Syrians, not just the few around him/her. Past Middle East polls have shown that cronyism is the number one concern of the Arab street, which translates really into “Where are OUR opportunities”?
Here is a study entitled “The Economics of the Arab Spring” authored by Adeel Malik of Oxford and Bassem Awadallah, the ex-Finance and Planning Minister of Jordan that describe how cronyism is the reason that sparked the Arab Spring. We find it truly amazing no Western country is able to take advantage of such priceless information to help eradicate terror and extremism.
We never understood why the West never applied its PR and spin knowhow in the ME for the good of the ME. The West would rather deal with corrupt strongmen than honest and popular men/women able to move the people into the 21st century. There is a reason why the region is dark. It starts with dark men ruling it. That mentality of only dealing with corrupt strongmen is leading the US into exactly what the US wants to avoid: Interventionism.
We have tried everything else, did we not?
Considering today’s leadership in the Syrian opposition and what is at stakes, we have no choice but to find that moderate and liberal new leader to come from inside of Syria.
Start by spending $100 million to cast his/her image the way the Democrats cast the Obama image with success – tell Qatar Udaid Air Base will relocate if its leadership support any Islamist candidate — and then support him/her to be elected when the right time comes. He/she will take religion out of the equation by slowly introducing immense economic opportunities to serve all the people, not himself/herself or his/her cousins. It is all about giving the people the opportunity for a better life. Any complaints by the larger players in the region just flash those pictures of the Stealth bombers.
We can no longer say the ME belongs to the ME. It belongs to all of us because of its potential to harm. Damascus in the Wrong Hands is a danger to us all.
However, given how the NEA Department at State mismanaged its affairs so far starting with funding the Muslim Brotherhood with Barada-TV in 2006 and how it managed to have al-Maliki rule in Iraq and Morsi rule in Egypt, I am not holding my breath. Dark and corrupt men are lavishly better hosts than accountable and honest men/women could ever be.
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