Punditry StaffUkraine is not out of the woods yet. While its latest advances against an invading army has earned the country the respect of most of the world, Russia is far from a total defeat in Ukraine. Not only because Putin still occupies about 20% of the country, but because Russia has restricted itself from a total mobilization of its armed forces. How will the west respond to a full Russian mobilization remains an unknown commodity. Suffice to say that, so far, the determination of Ukraine, Europe, and the United States has been unabated and unrelenting.
From afar, it is obvious to all observers that Europe is not about to let Vladimir Putin, an ex-KGB officer, roll over its history and demolish its self-determination. Just as the old Soviet Union through the deployment of its iron curtain after WWII. This much Putin knows and maybe this factor, along with domestic considerations, are the main factors why the Kremlin has not mobilized its armed forces to stabilize its occupation of Ukraine.
HOW WILL THE WEST RESPOND TO A FULL RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION?
We are of the belief that the west has already an answer to this question that takes several forms. Notwithstanding a crop of new severe sanctions against Russia that have not been deployed because they partially impact the west economically, the military options on the table should give Putin a pause if he is to consider the option of mobilizing the Russian army.
Besides the west military and economic responses, Putin must also consider the political ramifications internally and abroad. Having been scolded by the Indian Prime Minister Modi and the Chinese President XI, Putin must consider his escalating options carefully. Turning Russia into an international pariah cements the west sanctions and sink their teeth deeper into the Russian economy.
Furthermore, it is unlikely Putin would ignore the Indian Prime Minister warnings because India is still buying Russian oil that no one else would dare touch. This is like telling your banker to go fly a kite after you applied for a loan.
What remains is a standoff, which will eventually play into Ukrainian hands as the country relies on the staying economic powers of the west to outlast Putin.
BODY BAGS ARE NOISY
On the domestic front, body bags, whether it’s in the U.S. or Russia, have a deep and unstable impact on the psyche of the voters. Putin cannot afford, with losses mounting, to throw even more bodies into a war he is starting to believe he cannot win. The Russian people would revolt en masse should Putin take the Ukraine war to the next extreme level.
To say that Putin’s options, after the Ukrainian victory in the northeast of the country, have become more difficult to contemplate, is an understatement. Damned if he escalates, and damned if he takes it on the chin. His limited options have also provided an entry point for his allies to press him for a peaceful resolution to this conflict, something that his Scythian stock will most likely refute.
What remains is a standoff, which will eventually play into Ukrainian hands as the country relies on the staying economic powers of the west to outlast Putin.
In conclusion, even though it is unlikely Putin might escalate at this point in time, the west better be ready.
WHAT IS IN STORE FOR PUTIN GOING FORWARD?
As we mentioned in a previous article, Ukraine will be the last war Vladimir Putin will prosecute. Unlike his aggression against Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria, Putin has met his match in President Biden, President Zelenskyy, and a united Europe. The man has run out of fuel in the middle of a desert.
What is in store for Putin going forward is accountability. One that would hit the pockets of the Russian people. As well as their quality of life as the sanctions begin to sink deeper into their skins. Whether his detractors or his supporters, each now has a cause to react to his Ukrainian invasion and fiasco.
Will he be looking over his shoulders going forward? Probably and possibly. There are many powerful figures in Russia who have lost much because of his reckless behavior. While they may not openly revolt or undermine his rule, the fact he no longer enjoys their free-will support will reverberate internally. This much, we are certain. Putin himself buried the do-no-wrong personae he cultivated for over twenty years.
In conclusion, even though it is unlikely Putin might escalate at this point in time, the west better be ready. The man has surrounded himself with extremists, like Patriarch Kirill and Aleksandr Dugin, who will not hesitate to push him to start a third world war if necessary.
How Will the West Respond to a Full Russian Mobilization?
Punditry Staff
