There are two important elements driving the determination of the United States and Europe to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. One deals with the military learning curve NATO is mastering to prepare for future Russian assaults. The other with the notion that Putin will not survive Ukraine because, barring his defeat, he will not hesitate to destabilize the west again by aggressing other countries.
To win the war in Ukraine is to win back the western world order rogue nations, like Russia, are trying to upstage. Not on the basis of any superior political or economic excellence, but simply on the basis of a WWII hollow grandeur of exceptionalism that lingers in the Russian psyche.
Russia is a poor dictatorial country whose 90% of its population are peasants and a recent irreversible brain drain due to its war on Ukraine. From any angle of analysis, all Russia has is a nuclear arsenal it cannot use, and a Russian military that may be on the brink of collapse. The country is as void of excellence as a crocodile is void of an appetite.
In brief, Putin will not survive Ukraine as long as the west is determined to win Putin’s last war.
Difficulties on the battlefields in Ukraine are opportunities to build the very defensive and offensive capabilities to defeat Russia for good.
NATO LEARNING CURVE
The struggles Ukraine and her allies are facing in dislodging Russian troops from occupied territories in eastern Ukraine are opportunities in disguise.
To conquer those difficulties would provide the United States with an operational blueprint to enable future Russian defeats on traditional battlefields of war. Whether the overuse of attack drones, supersonic missiles, or the complexities of conquering mined fields, the U.S. is pouring over solving such tactical problems using its innovative advantages. Those are mostly present in the form of entrepreneurial defense contractors, in the U.S. and Europe, who see many opportunities to create the offensive and defensive capabilities necessary for NATO to battle Russia’s conventional war machine.
Don’t bet against a jam-proof drone with precise de-mining capabilities. Or, drones with its own missile systems to attack other airborne drones, or a major upgrade to the Patriot defense missile system to counter the new Russian supersonic missiles. The sky is the limit when it comes to rapid innovation and deployment. It is what the U.S. does best, when it compares to other countries.
Meanwhile, NATO is learning fast how to be ready for Putin in the future, which is why we believe Putin will not survive Ukraine. His attrition rate, be it in materials or human lives, is far more fragile than Ukraine’s which has no choice but to defend against his aggression. It is only a question of time before Russia capitulates and exits Ukraine, which will lead to Putin’s death. Probably by an internal coup. The late Prigozhin has advertised that possibility to the whole world already.
Difficulties on the battlefields in Ukraine are opportunities to build the very defensive and offensive capabilities to defeat Vladimir Putin and Russian war machine for good.
Don’t look at Ukraine struggling any other way.