There are facts on the ground, which promote the notion that without the votes of the American Muslim communities in the United States in key states like Michigan, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, President Biden would not have won in 2020. And according to Emgage, a civic organization, without the same voters backing his presidency, Biden might lose in 2024.
How is that possible, you ask? Well, it is simple math.
- Biden won Michigan by 120,000 votes thanks to 150,000 Arab-Americans voting for him.
- Biden carried Pennsylvania by 81,000 and the American Muslim community provided him with 125,000.
- Furthermore, Biden won Georgia by 12,000 votes, of which American Muslims provided an 81,000 vote advantage over Donald Trump.
No President can win if they lose 3 key swing states. That’s a fact.
In total, 27% more American Muslim voters showed up in 2020 than 2016. And it is likely that the numbers will rise even further in 2024 as American Muslims watch Biden take to the sidelines and refuse to support a ceasefire in Gaza that would spare the lives of innocent Palestinian women and children.
Gaza is going to spark a life into the Arab and Muslim communities across the U.S., which may translate to either more votes for Donald Trump, or people sitting out voting for Biden or Trump.
Either way, Biden might lose.
In fact, if Biden loses in 2024 because Arab American stayed home, it will provide more power to all American Muslims in the US.
BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
However, Biden, the ultimate politician, might have already considered replacing the Arab and the American Muslim votes with more Jewish Republican voters and more contributions from the American Jewish communities because of his militant support for Israel. American Muslims provide mostly just votes with small donations, but American Jews provide both big money and voters.
One must conclude that Biden’s strategy is to rely on more American Jews voting for him in 2024 for his support of Israel by cannibalizing from the approximate 20% of American Jews who voted for Donald Trump in 2020.
But is that enough because right now, he is losing the American Muslim and Arab-American voters in droves.
Can Biden make-up the Arab-American and Muslim American votes by abandoning them in favor of a more hawkish Israel policy? Is this a risky proposition and a dart throw in the dark? Or, is this a well-planned and well analyzed strategy by the Biden re-election campaign? Being the consummate politician, Biden might think he no longer needs the American Muslims votes anymore.
And the longer the war in Gaza lasts, the more damage he might cause his re-election bid if his calculations do not pan out.
In fact, if Biden loses in 2024 because Arab Americans stayed home, it will provide more power to all American Muslims in the US. They will dangle that carrot they hold in key swing states to extract more concessions from any future presidents.
The Hamas-Israel war and 2024 elections may be a game changer in U.S. politics. The combination may confirm to the American Muslim communities the realization of their oversized powers.